[SMM Steel Import and Export Data Review] Perfect Conclusion for 2024 Steel Exports, How Much Will 2025 Steel Exports Decline?

On January 13, according to data from the General Administration of Customs, China exported 9.727 million mt of steel in December 2024, up 4.8% MoM and up 25.87% YoY. From January to December, steel exports totaled 110.716 million mt, up 22.7% YoY.

In December, China imported 621,000 mt of steel, up 31.3% MoM but down 6.6% YoY. From January to December, total steel imports reached 6.815 million mt, down 10.93% YoY.

December Steel Import and Export Data Overview

·       December Steel Exports Increased MoM  

In December, steel exports rose 4.8% MoM, with annual export growth exceeding 20%. Since October, domestic macroeconomic performance has been below expectations. Coupled with the depreciation of the yuan, China's HRC export FOB prices have shown a significant downward trend, enhancing competitiveness. Meanwhile, concerns over tariff hikes under Trump's administration persist, leading to a rush in exports. Overall, steel export volumes increased MoM, marking a strong finish for annual steel exports.

·       December Steel Imports Remained at Low Levels

On the import side, China imported 621,000 mt of steel in December, up 31.3% MoM, maintaining a net export status. In December, China's net steel exports reached 9.106 million mt, up 28.93% YoY.

·       Short-Term Steel Export Outlook

According to the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, the global manufacturing PMI in December 2024 was 49.5%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, marking two consecutive months of growth. However, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed that China's manufacturing new export orders index in December was 48.3%, up 0.2% from the previous month, reflecting a continued recovery in overseas demand and an improvement in overseas orders.

Data monitored by the World Steel Association showed that in November 2024, crude steel production in 71 countries included in its statistics reached 146.8 million mt, up 0.8% YoY. Production outside China totaled 6.84 billion mt, down 1.01% YoY.

As of January 13, 2025, FOB export prices for HRC in India, Turkey, and the CIS were $507/mt, $540/mt, and $485/mt, respectively, while China's HRC FOB export price was $472/mt. Currently, China's HRC export prices are $35/mt, $68/mt, and $13/mt lower than those of other countries, with MoM price advantages of +6.06%, -6.85%, and +750%, respectively.

According to SMM's latest shipping data, steel port departures in December reached 11.4393 million mt, up 1.90% MoM, with the overall trend remaining consistent. Based on SMM's latest steel mill export scheduling data, January's planned export volume is expected to increase by 12.9% compared to December's actual export volume. Therefore, SMM anticipates that steel export volumes in January may increase compared to this month!

The specific reasons are as follows: First, export price advantages still exist, and the yuan is unlikely to appreciate significantly in the short term, maintaining the price advantage for steel exports. Second, January coincides with the traditional Chinese New Year holiday, which may weaken domestic sales. Steel mills remain proactive in securing export orders to offset the decline in domestic sales. Third, global manufacturing PMI continues to rebound, and overseas supply is down YoY, creating a supply-demand imbalance favorable for China's steel exports.  

·        2025 Steel Export Outlook

In 2024,

China's steel export volumes continued to rise, leading some countries to claim that Chinese steel products were being sold in international markets at prices below normal value. This year, China faced a significant increase in trade remedy investigations, with cumulative cases exceeding the total from 2021-2023. The specific impacts may materialize in 2025. On the other hand, tariff hikes imposed by Trump's administration will also affect China's indirect steel exports. Considering these two factors require time to unfold, SMM expects that steel exports in 2025 may show a high-to-low trend throughout the year. However, price advantages are likely to persist, so annual steel export volumes are projected to decline slightly YoY, fluctuating between 96 million mt and 98 million mt. ​